基于DEM的桂林海洋岩溶区洪水淹没预测模型

摘要

Quantitative estimation of flooded area,the key in flood inundation forecasting model,is firstly ap-plied to calculate flood inundation area and its percentage of coverage in Guilin marine karst area by the passive inundation methodology based on Digital Elevation Model (DEM)and MapGIS calculation.According to differ-ent water levels and the percentage of coverage,the flood inundation forecasting model can study the inundated area by water change construction.Secondly,by the principle of total water volume equality,precipitation data of the local meteorological observation station and the calculation of flood submerged area with volume method, this study can verify the flood forecasting model and improve the reliability of prediction model.From the combi-nation of flood inundation area and the remote sensing of study area ,the actual scope of flood inundation is shown with a good dynamic visibility of forecasting model.%洪水淹没面积的定量估测是洪水淹没预测模型确立的关键。以桂林海洋岩溶区为研究区，采用基于DEM数据的无源淹没分析法，借助于MapGIS平台计算洪水淹没面积和其对应的覆盖率，通过统计不同水位与其对应淹没面积的数据，构建出研究区淹没面积随水位变化的洪水淹没预测模型。利用总水量体积相等的原理，根据当地气象站观测的降水量数据，运用体积法计算洪水淹没区面积，以验证洪水淹没预测模型，提高预测模型的可靠性，并将淹没范围与研究区遥感影像融合后直观地展现出淹没的实际范围，增强了模型预测的动态可视性。