中国热钱月度流动规模测算研究

摘要

This analysis estimated the flow scale of hot money from January 1999 to September 2013. The formula applied is“the flow scale of hot money = the increases of reserves after adjustment - the trade sur-plus - the increases of Foreign Direct Investment(FDI)- the foreign debt increases + the hidden hot money of the trade surplus + the hidden hot money of the FDI + the increases of the short-term debt on for-eign-funded enterprises + the flow scale of hot money through illegal channels”. The distributed lag model is also adopted in the estimation.%文章使用“热钱流动的规模=调整后的外汇储备增加额-贸易顺差-外商直接投资（FDI）增加额-外债增加额+贸易顺差中隐藏的热钱+FDI中隐藏的热钱+外资企业的短期外债增加额+通过非法渠道流入的热钱规模”的计算方法，结合分布滞后模型，对1999年至2013年9月期间热钱的月度流动规模进行了估算。