中国对马来西亚农产品出口波动成因分析--基于 CMS 模型的实证

摘要

In recent years ,China’s agricultural products export to Malaysia has been experiencing an obvious fluctuation .conducting empir-ical analysis on the fluctuation from product structure ,demand structure ,product competitiveness by using the constant market share model , it shows that the competitiveness effect is the major fluctuation factor on the whole agricultural products export ,the effect of product structure takes the second place ,and the influence of demand structure effect is not stable .Regarding to the cataloged agricultural products export , competitiveness effect is the main fluctuation factor to agricultural products of catalog 0 ,and product structure effect is the major fluctuation factor to agricultural products of catalog 2 .Products exportation of catalog 1 and catalog 4 have no obvious fluctuation .%2000年以来，中国对马来西亚农产品出口的波动状况明显。通过 CMS 模型从产品结构、需求结构及竞争力三方面对波动根源进行实证研究，得出：整体农产品出口中，竞争力效应是中国农产品出口波动的主要原因，产品结构效应次之，需求结构效应不稳定；分类农产品出口中，0类（食物及活动物）出口波动的根源是产品竞争力效应，2类（非食用原材料）出口波动的主要因素是产品结构效应；1类（饮料及烟草）与4类（动植物油脂）的出口波动特征不明显。