Analysis on the fluctuation of production and consumption of energy and its cause in China at multi-time scale based on empirical mode decomposition method

摘要

The EMD method was introduced to study the fluctuation of production and consumption of energy in China at multi-time scale from 1949–2008. Through the method of EMD, the fluctuations or trends in the different time level were unbundled to produce a series of different characteristics of the intrinsic mode functions and the system had the evolution curves on a different time scale, which could be as a special solution to the system. Results show that: the production and consumption of energy in China are separately decomposed into two IMFs and a trend by EMD method. The main periodic fluctuation of production of energy in China is about 13-year period and the secondary periodic fluctuation is about 4-year period. The main periodic fluctuation of consumption of energy in China is about 5-year period and the secondary periodic fluctuation is about 13-year period. Then it analyzed the influence factors of the fluctuation of production and consumption of energy in China. Energy policy, economic development and industrial structure in common play important roles on the fluctuation of production and consumption of energy in China.