广东民营企业对外贸易转型升级影响因素实证分析

摘要

By using the data from 1992 to 2012, this paper makes an empirical study of the influencing factors in trans-forming and upgrading the private enterprises’ foreign trade in Guangdong. First, it extracts some typical factors from mul-tiple variables by using principal component regression to eliminate the multicollinearity. Then, it reuses a regression with the components derived before. The result demonstrates that technological development, domestic industrial structure and institutional factors have significant positive effects, while real FDI has negative effect, and factor endowments and exchange rate effect are not obvious. Finally, it proposes some policy suggestions to promote transformation and upgrading of the private enterprises’ foreign trade in Guangdong.%文章利用广东省1992~2012的年度数据对影响广东省民营企业对外贸易转型升级的因素进行实证检验。首先使用主成分分析法从选取的多个影响变量中提取出具有代表性的主要因素，以消除多个变量间存在的多重共线性，再利用计量回归模型对影响广东省民营企业对外贸易的因素进行实证检验。研究结果显示，技术进步、国内产业结构和制度因素有显著的正向作用；而外商直接投资则体现为显著的负向作用，要素禀赋条件和汇率因素作用不明显。最后针对促进广东省民营企业对外贸易转型升级提出相应的政策建议。