基于双对数模型的人境韩国游客旅游需求影响因素分析

摘要

South Korea is one of the main tourist countries in China' s inbound market, and therefore it is of important significance to research influencing factors of South Korea tourist demand for China. By using the double logarithmic model and SPSS20 tool to analyse the data, this article makes a conclusion that the ratio of consumer price index (CPI) of both South Korea and China, per capita GDP of South Korea and SARS event are the main factors which influence the South Korea tourist demands for China, while the exchange rate of Won against RMB, the finance crisis of Southeast Asia and the finance crisis of the world don' t have the significant impacts on demand. Among these factors, the ratio of CPI of both South Korea and China, per capita GDP of South Korea and exchange rate of Won against RMB have positive correlation with South Korea tourist demand for China, while other factors have negative correlation with it. During the analysis, the article puts forward the view that a factor With insignificant ' t' test should not be removed from the model under certain conditions, and also explores the methods of choosing data.%借助双对数模型，使用SPSS20软件得出了对韩国游客旅华需求影响的主要因素有韩国与中国相对CPI、韩国人均GDP以及非典事件，而韩元兑人民币汇率、亚洲金融危机、全球金融危机对需求的影响不显著，其中对需求的作用为正相关的因素有韩国与中国相对CPI、韩国人均GDP以及韩元兑人民币汇率，其余因素表现为负相关作用。分析过程中提出了在符合一定条件的前提下不应将没有通过t检验的因素从模型中剔除的看法，同时对数据的选择进行了探索。