基于 VAR 模型的湖北省碳排放能源影响因素分析

摘要

以湖北省为研究对象,通过1985~2013年的统计数据,基于VAR模型运用协整检验、脉冲响应函数和方差分解等方法,实证研究了人口规模、经济发展水平、能源强度和能源的消费总量对碳排放量变化的影响. 研究结果表明:湖北省碳排放与上述四项影响因素存在长期均衡关系. 脉冲响应函数和方差分解方法分别分析了各影响因素对碳排放的动态冲击效应和影响程度,为湖北省在碳排放配额机制下,有效实现节能减排提供相关建议.%Taking Hubei province as the research object and on the basis of data from 1985 to 2013 ,the article adopts cointegration test ,impulse response function and variance decomposition to conduct the empirical study on the impact of the population size ,the level of economic development ,energy intensity and energy consumption on the changes of carbon emissions based on VAR model .The results show that there is a long -term equilibrium relationship between carbon emissions and the above four factors in Hubei province .The impulse response function and variance decompo-sition method are used to analyze the dynamic impact effect and the influence degree of each factor on carbon emis -sions,which aim to provide the relevant suggestions for the effective implementation of energy saving and emission re -duction in Hubei province .