中国超大城市户籍人口转化的实证研究

摘要

From 2020 to 2030,accelerating the“citizenization”of the migrant population is key to promoting urbanization and achieving common prosperity.The urbanization rate of the registered population in China is roughly 18%lower than that of permanent residents.The pressure of the ageing population and the lack of a labor force have caused big cities to introduce relevant policies to attract talent,and the citizenization process needs to be improved urgently,with a particular focus on megacities.The transformation in the number of registered residents in megacities varies greatly,and there is a lack of research on this topic,which makes it an important academic issue.Using both natural and social perspectives,we selected concise indicators and combined the possibility-satisfiability model to estimate the urbanization transformation gap of annual household registration.Further,we constructed a panel data model to empirically analyze the different factors leading to the gap of household registration in megacities.The main factors affecting the transformation of the registered population in megacities are medical services,as well as educational resources and the urban water supply.It is urgent for urban and rural administrators to change the current passive and rigid institutional mechanisms and to ensure flexible,normal governance.