ECFA对台湾农产品贸易潜力的影响

摘要

Panel data from 2006 to 2013 are collected to investigate the effect of ECFA implementation on trade potentialities of Tai-wan agricultural products.The results show as follows.Effect of ECFA on trade flows of Taiwan agricultural products has not ap-peared yet in the short term,because the time for implementing the early harvest plan is short However,in the long term trend,EC-FA will increase trade potentialities of Taiwan agricultural products.The main factor affecting trade of Taiwan agricultural products is bilateral economic development levels.Distance variables have a significant impact on the export of Taiwan agricultural products,but insignificant on their import .%运用2006－2013年的面板数据，研究ECFA的实施对台湾农产品贸易潜力的影响。研究表明：由于早收计划实施的时间较短，ECFA对台湾的农产品贸易流量的影响在短期内无法体现。但是从长期趋势来看，ECFA将促进台湾农产品贸易潜力增长；影响台湾地区农产品贸易的主要因素是双边的经济发展水平，距离变量对台湾地区农产品出口影响显著，但对进口影响不大。