信心、动物精神与中国宏观经济波动

摘要

本文主要研究了信心是否影响以及如何影响中国宏观经济波动.通过运用格兰杰因果关系检验和线性回归模型分析信心能否影响中国经济波动,发现企业家信心能影响宏观经济波动,而消费者信心无法影响宏观经济波动.参照Harrison and Weder(2006)等的做法,将企业家信心分解为基本面信心与动物精神,研究了基本面信心的影响因素,发现经济增长、通货膨胀、利率与股指对基本面信心影响较大;通过使用向量自回归模型研究动物精神对宏观经济的动态影响,发现动物精神对经济增长、通货膨胀和利率都有显著的短期影响,并且这种影响机制符合总需求冲击的特征.%The paper mainly studies whether the confidence has effect on economic fluctuation in China? First-ly, by using Granger casualty test and linear regression, it is found that consumer confidence cannot but entre-preneur confidence can cause economic fluctuation. Secondly, the authors decompose entrepreneur confidence into fundamental sentiment and animal spirits and thus find that GDP, CPI, interest rate and stock market index affect fundamental sentiment significantly. In addition, animal spirits do have a significant impact on GDP, CPI and interest rate, which are in line with the characters of aggregate demand shocks.