“机会主义”策略及其在我国财政政策规则中的运用∗

摘要

The regulation of fiscal policies not only exerts intrinsic automatic stabilizer function,but also embodies policy intentions of governments,being consistent with op-portunistic strategy.This paper incorporates the idea of opportunistic strategy into fiscal policy rules to study the existence of opportunistic strategy in the regulation of fiscal poli-cies on inflation and output in China.It arrives at the main findings as follows:the fiscal policy targets including inflation and economic growth show stronger time-varying charac-teristics,and the regulation on economic growth depends on the deviation from the inter-mediate target of economic growth.Specifically speaking,while the deviation between eco-nomic growth and its intermediate target is within the interval between -0.95% to 2.85%,fiscal policies exert intrinsic automatic stabilizer function,showing stronger iner-tia;while the deviation between economic growth and its intermediate target is out of the interval between -0.95% to 2.85%,fiscal policies tend to be active,and play an active moderating role in economic growth.%财政政策既要发挥内在的自动稳定器功能,又要体现政府的政策意图,具有与“机会主义”策略一致的内涵。文章将“机会主义”策略融入财政政策规则,对我国财政政策对通胀和产出的调节是否表现出“机会主义”策略进行了研究,得到的主要结论可以概括为：我国财政政策对通胀和经济增长目标值的关注表现出较强的时变性,且其对经济增长的调节依赖于对经济增速中间目标的偏离程度。当经济增速与中间目标的偏离位于区间[-0.95%,2.85%]内时,财政政策将发挥内生的自动稳定器功能,表现出较强的惰性；而当经济增速与其中间目标的偏离位于该区间外时,财政政策则表现出较强的活性,会对经济增长产生积极的调节作用。