为理性研究房地产市场需求的变化及其影响,从人口结构角度出发,基于省际面板数据,分析人口结构改变对房地产市场需求产生的影响.结果发现:老年抚养比、城镇化率与房地产市场需求呈正相关关系,平均家庭户规模、少儿抚养比、总人口性别比、未婚率与房地产市场需求呈负相关关系.基于理性,对未来15年的房地产市场刚性需求做出预测,得出未来15年房地产市场刚性需求仍成增长态势,并为国家的宏观调控、房地产企业的开发进程提出建议.%Population structure is an important factor that affects the demand of real estate market. This paper analyzes the impact of population structure change on real estate market demand from the perspective of population structure using provincial panel data. The results showed that the relationship between old age and urbanization rate was positively correlated with the real estate market demand while the average household size,the child support ratio,the total population sex ratio and the unmarried rate were negatively correlated with the real estate market demand. Based on the rationality,this paper predicts the rigid demand of the real estate market in the next 15 years. It is concluded that the rigid demand of the real estate market will keep growing in the next 15 years.
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