人口结构对房地产价格的影响--基于动态面板和门限模型的实证研究

摘要

The real estate market has become very important factor that affecting the economic development and social stability of our country, with the deepening of the aging population, the relationship between population structure and the real estate price is worth studying. In this paper, we use the panel data of 31 provincial-level administrative regions, using a dynamic panel data model and panel threshold model, studies the relationship between the population structure and the real estate prices, empirical research results show that: 15 - 64 year olds accounted for decline in the proportion of the total population, can inhibit the price of a house, and there is a threshold effect, and ifnally put forward some policy suggestions according to the research conclusion.%房地产市场成为我国经济发展和社会稳定十分重要的影响因素，随着人口老龄化的深入，人口结构和房地产价格的关系值得研究，本文使用全国31个省级行政区的面板数据，使用动态面板模型和面板门限模型，研究了人口结构和房地产价格的关系，实证研究结果表明：15—64岁人口占总人口比例的下降，会抑制房价，并且存在门限效应，最后根据研究结论提出政策建议。