Advance selling is an important sale method of real estate projects. Based on the theory of strategic consume behavior, this article provides an advance selling and two-stage optimal pricing strategy under the dimensions of supply-demand relationship and change of real estate evaluation. The results show that consumers' evaluation on the sale price and the capital utilization coefficient of real estate enterprise have a direct effect on advance selling strategy in the upward market. In downward market, advance selling is the optimal strategy of the real estate enterprise and the evaluation in the sale phase plays a major role in pricing.%预售是房地产项目的主要销售方式.以分析策略消费行为为基础,从市场供需关系和商品房估值变化两个维度研究了房地产项目的预售决策及两阶段最优定价策略,并通过数值分析验证了理论证明相关结论.研究发现,在市场处于升值情境时,消费者对商品房预售及正式销售阶段的估值和房产商的资金效应系数对房产商预售决策有直接影响;而在市场处于下跌情境时,预售策略是房地产商的优先选择,正式销售阶段的估值在定价中占据主要作用.
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