基于博弈论和 K均值的北京山区小流域综合敏感性评价

摘要

Susceptibility analysis is an effective method to obtain characteristics of developments of catchment.There is a concomitant or alternate pattern of flash flood and debris flow in the mountainous area of Beijing.Consideration of hazard of debris flow alone cannot match the requirement of disaster prevention and control in themountainous area of Beijing if causing factors of flash flood are neglected.In this research,we adopt the evaluationfactors of flash flood in the susceptibility analysis of debris flow.Ten catchments in Beijing mountainous area areinvestigated.Analytic hierarchy process and entropy method are used for subjective and objective weighting.Combination weighting is calculated by game theory.The susceptibility of catchments is divided into slight,moderate and severe scale by Kmeans algorithm.Field investigation is used to check the results of scaling.Theresult shows that susceptibility analysis considering factors of flash flow fits the characteristics of disasters in themountainous area of Beijing.%敏感性分析是全面掌握小流域沟谷发展总体特征的有效途径。北京山区山洪泥石流灾害常相伴或交替发生，只考虑泥石流孕灾环境而忽视山洪致灾因子不能适应北京山区防灾减灾的客观要求。在分析泥石流敏感性基础上引入山洪评价因子，选取北京山区10条典型小流域，构建山洪泥石流综合评价体系，通过层次分析法对指标进行主观赋权，熵值法进行客观赋权，由博弈论给出各指标的组合权重值，由 K均值聚类法将小流域敏感性分为轻度、中度、重度3个等级。结合现场调查验证分类结果，表明山洪泥石流综合敏感性评价结果更适合北京山区的客观情况。