沧州市地面沉降灾害预测预警

摘要

为了准确模拟评价沧州市地下水开采对地面沉降的影响,为沧州市政规划和地下水资源管理提供决策依据,基于比奥固结理论,建立了地下水开采与地面沉降三维全耦合数学模型.在对模型进行识别和校正的基础上,模拟预测了在地下水现状开采情况下,从2010年12月31日至2025年12月31日逐年的地面沉降变化趋势,并根据地面沉降速率对地面沉降进行了地质灾害预警分区.结果表明,到2025年12月31日,沧州市累计最大地面沉降量为466.82 mm,最小地面沉降量为241.54 mm,大部分地区为四级预警区和五级预警区,仅肃宁县为三级预警区.%This paper simulates and evaluates the influence of groundwater exploitation on land subsidence in Cangzhou area,and provides decision basis for municipal planning and groundwater resources management.On the basis of Biot's consolidation theory,it establishes a three-dimensional full coupling mathematic model of groundwater exploitation and land subsidence in Cangzhou.On the basis of the identification and verification of the model,it simulates the trend of land subsidence under the superposition of current situation of groundwater exploitation from December 31,2010 to December 31,2025.It partitions the land subsidence according to the rate of land subsidence.The results show that the maximum cumulative land subsidence in Cangzhou area is 466.82 mm,and the minimum cumulative land subsidence is 241.54 mm.Most areas are four or five warning areas.Only Suning County is the three warning area.