基于云推理的线路保护装置故障率预测方法

摘要

综合考虑人为因素以及设备健康指数对保护设备故障率的影响,提出基于双条件单规则云推理的线路保护预测方法.首先,采用双条件单规则,挖掘设备健康指数和故障率之间的不确定推理关系;然后,采用云发生器,建立故障率一维云模型和人为失效率—健康指数的二维云模型,并建立故障率预测模型,预测继电保护设备的故障率.实例分析结果表明:考虑人为因素的故障率预测模型,更接近设备的实际运行状况,证明了人为因素对设备故障率的影响是不可忽略的.比较基于云推理模型和多元回归法的故障预测结果,发现基于云模型的故障率预测模型更符合该地区实际可靠性数据统计规律,证明了该文提出方法的有效性和实用性.%Synthetic considering the influence factors for protection equipment failure rate, failure rate prediction method of transmission line protection equipment based on cloud reasoning was proposed in this paper. Firstly, uncertainty reasoning relation between health index and failure rate was excavated by using the double condition single rule. Then, the cloud generator was used to establish one-dimensional cloud model of the failure rate and two-dimensional cloud model of human failure rate-health index. The failure rate prediction model was set up to predict the failure rate of the protection equipment.The experimental results show that the failure rate model considering the human factors is more close to the actual operation condition of the protection equipments,which proves that the human factors can't be negligible. Additionally, compared with multivariate method practical data, it was indicated that the proposed model is more consistent with the statistical regularities of a regional power grid, which verifies the effectiveness and application of the proposed method.