基于因子分析的地震综合指数在辽宁地区地震预测中的应用

摘要

According to different seismic activity features, we divided Liaoning area into three regions: the north part, the west part and the south part. And then we chose eleven seismic activity parameters which contain the information of time, space, intensity and subsurface medium to calculate on the three regions in order to mine a comprehensive index which could avoid the asynchrony and remain 80~90% information of the parameters. The research showed that the comprehensive index decreased significantly in 1~2 years before a influential earthquake occurred and it could be used in the future earthquake prediction.%将辽宁地区按照地震活动特点划分为辽北、辽南、辽西三个主要区域，应用因子分析的方法，选取地震活动性参量中的11个参量（地震频次N、b值、η值、A（b）值、Mf值、Ac值、C值、D值、Rm值、能量E、响应比），进行数据的综合和再次挖掘，得到包含地震时、空、强及地下介质信息的综合指数。综合指数W fa中涵盖了众多参量中80~90%的信息，并有效规避了各参量在地震预测中的不一致性。结果显示，在研究区域影响范围内发生较大地震前的1~2年时间内，综合指数W fa都有明显的异常变化，说明综合指数可以较好反映地震活动异常特征。