我国食品对外贸易对食品工业经济增长影响分析

摘要

There is a stable long-term equivalence between food import and food industry growth,food export and food industry growth in China.Through the multi-variable cause-and-effect test proposed by Granger it is found that a unidirectional causal relation as Granger proposes exists from food export growth to food industry growth,a unidirectional causal relation from food industry growth to food import growth and a bidirectional causal relation from food import growth to food export growth.From the error correction model（ECM） it is drawn that in the short term,food import and export will promote the economic growth of food industry.Finally,suggestions are proposed for food foreign trade promoting the development of food industry in China.%运用协整检验结果表明中国食品进口与食品工业经济增长、中国食品出口与食品工业经济增长之间构成了长期稳定的均衡关系;运用多变量的Granger因果关系检验发现存在食品出口到食品工业经济增长的单向Granger因果关系,食品工业经济增长到食品进口增长的单向Granger因果关系,以及食品进口增长到食品出口增长的双向Granger因果关系;运用误差修正模型得出在短期内,食品进口、出口对食品工业经济增长有促进作用。