基于燃爆危险源评估法的安全性定量分析模型

摘要

Because the existing explosion hazard assessment method was not fully applicable to the safety quantitative analysis of the emergency opening system, we put forward an safety quantitative analysis model based on explosion hazard assessment method. The characteristics of the emergency opening system itself and its aviation environment was considered in the model,and the existing assessment model was simplified and distorted reasonably. The re-established model could analyze the accident consequences severity and accident probability, it was facilitative to access parameters and the calculating was simple. By using of the model,the hazard degree compliance status of the emergency opening system was calculated, which of before and after the safety improvement measures being taken, and it had a good consistency with the actual situation.%已有的燃爆危险源评估法不能完全适用于应急开启系统安全性定量分析,因此提出基于燃爆危险源评估法的应急开启系统安全性定量分析模型.该模型在考虑了应急开启系统自身及所处航空环境特点情形下,对原有的评估模型进行合理简化和变形.重新建立的模型从事故发生概率和事故后果严重程度两方面进行分析,具有获取参量方便、计算过程简单的特点.运用该模型,计算了采取安全改造措施前后应急开启系统危险度的达标情况,与实际情况具有较好的一致性.由此可见,该模型为系统的安全性设计方案的选择提供了一种定量分析方法.