长江经济带碳排放脱钩状态及其驱动因素研究

摘要

The relationship between economic growth and CO2 emission is an important indicator in the construction of low-carbon economy.Yangtze River economic belt (YREB)is one of China's″three supporting belts″.Thus,it is of great importance to study the relationship between economic growth and CO2 emission in YREB. Tapio decoupling model and improved WCDM (weighting complete decomposition model)are applied to study the decoupling relationship between economic growth and CO2 emission and its driving factors in 1995-2013 in YREB.The results show that:the three industrial CO2 emission amount in YREB roughly increases year by year in 1995-2012 and decreases slightly in 2013 while taking one third of the total CO2 emission amount of the whole country.The second industry is main resource of CO2 emission accounting for about 80％ of total amount.The relationship between economic growth and CO2 emission shows weak decoupling state in most years of the study period,strong decoupling state and expansive negative decoupling state exist in the other years.The economic factor is the main factor leading to the negative decoupling state and the energy intensity factor is the most crucial factor facilitating the decoupling process.The economic structural factor prevents the economic growth decoupling from CO2 emission and the effect of CO2 emission factor is unstable.%CO2排放量与经济发展之间的动态关系是低碳经济建设中的重要指标.长江经济带是我国"三大支撑带"之一,对长江经济带CO2排放与经济发展之间的动态关系进行研究非常必要.基于Tapio脱钩模型和改进的加权因素分解模型,对长江经济带1995～2013年经济发展与能源消费起源CO2排放之间的脱钩关系及其驱动因素进行了研究,得到以下结论:长江经济带三次产业能源消费起源CO2排放量约占全国排放总量的三分之一,1995～2012年间CO2排放总量逐年增加,2013年稍有下降,第二产业是CO2主要排放源,占三次产业CO2排放总量的80％左右;1996～2013年,长江经济带CO2排放与经济发展之间动态关系在大多数年份处于弱脱钩状态,少数年份出现了强脱钩和扩张性负脱钩状态;经济因素是阻碍CO2排放脱钩的最主要因素,能源强度因素是促进CO2脱钩的最主要因素,结构因素对CO2脱钩也起阻碍作用,碳排放系数因素影响不稳定.