网络水军对互联网文化市场影响的仿真研究

摘要

In order to study the processes of manipulating commodity ranking information by Internet water ar-my in the Internet culture market and influencing factors ,this paper in-depth analyses the behavioral character-istics of listening online songs and dow nloading songs on the basis of Salganik et al .’s experimental study re-sults ,and a simulation model of songs dow nloading behavior in the Internet cultural market is proposed .On this basis ,we simulate the processes of distorting songs ranking information by Internet water army in the In-ternet cultural market ,and repeat the experiment many times by the method of controlling the variable .Exper-imental results show that the simulation is excellent in fitting ,consistent with the results of field experiments ;distortion by Internet water army can ensure the song with distortion to win ,proving that the harm of the In-ternet cultural market by Internet water army cannot be ignored ,as it affects the normal operation of the Inter-net culture market .Meanwhile there are three influencing factors of distortion by Internet water army ,namely social influence ,time of distorting and quality of songs .%为了研究网络水军操控互联网文化市场中商品排名信息的过程及影响要素，以Salganik等的现场实验结果为基准，深入分析了在线网络歌曲试听和试听后下载的行为特点，建立了互联网文化市场中歌曲下载行为的仿真模型。在此基础上，模拟网络水军操控互联网文化市场中商品排名信息的过程，通过控制变量法进行多次灌水实验。实验结果表明：仿真结果与现场实验结果具有很高的拟合度；网络水军可以通过灌水确保被灌水商品胜出，说明网络水军对互联网文化市场的危害是不可忽视的，影响正常运营秩序；同时发现了网络水军影响互联网文化市场的三点要素，即社会影响力、灌水时间和商品质量。