两种目标制下的我国最优货币政策研究

摘要

T his paper has established an AD‐AS model of open economy .It structures and estimates a mixed AD‐AS model based on statistics from 2003 to 2013 of China ,concluding optimal pre‐commitment monetary rules both of inflation target and interest rate smoothness target .Without interference ,the macro‐economy system of China would be asymptotically stable under both of the two optimal monetary policies .The optimal monetary policy of inflation target is more effective on controlling output gap ,w hile the policy of interest rate smoothness target is more sensible on operability .%文章构造了一个开放经济下的混合型AD‐AS模型，并根据我国2003～2013年的统计数据对其进行了估计，分别求出了在通货膨胀目标制和利率平滑目标制下事先承诺型的最优货币政策规则。在没有扰动的情况下，我国的宏观经济系统在这两种最优货币政策下都是渐近稳定的。通过两种目标制下最优货币政策的比较，发现在控制产出缺口方面，通货膨胀目标制更有效，在利率的操作性方面，利率平滑目标制更合理。