基于有理插值公式GM（1,1）模型的背景值构造新方法与应用

摘要

In this paper, the author analyses that the building approach method of background value in Grey model GM(1,1) is important and points out the method of background value reconstructing in grey model GM(1,1) based on the data rational interpolation and the extrapolation formula of numerical inte-gral. Thus precision and adaptability of the grey model can be effectively improved. Finally,this method is applied to China’ s per capita energy consumption prediction modeling. Simulation examples show the ef-fectiveness of the proposed approach.%本文通过分析GM(1,1)模型中的背景值,提出了用有理插值和数值积分中的梯形公式及外推法重构背景值,进而有效地提高模型的预测精度和适用性,最后将此方法应用到我国人均能源消耗量预测建模中,理论分析和应用实例表明了文章所提方法的有效性。