基于电影营销因素分析的电影票房预测

摘要

The date sample of this paper was taken from 102 movies which domestic released from January 2011 to December 2014,the paper selected 8 factors about movie marketing which influenced the film box-office as explanatory variables,and selected film box-office as explained variable. This paper built a model to predict box-office of movies based on neural network and to analyze the influence of 8 factors. According to this paper,we know the model on box-office revenue prediction of movie basing on factors of movie marketing performs better on prediction,so it is good for film production and movie marketing.%本文样本数据选取2011年1月初至2014年12月底公开上映的102部国产电影，选取了8个对票房有影响的营销相关因素作为自变量，票房收入作为因变量，通过建立基于BP神经网络的电影票房预测模型，分别对8个电影营销相关因素进行分析，并对电影的票房进行预测。通过本文，可以看出基于神经网络的票房预测模型有较好的预测效果，对于电影在上映前的投资、导演的选择及营销宣传等等能够提供较好的风险评估，具有较好应用价值。