Model along track kinematics equation of the aircraft by referencing to a classical conclusion that the along track error of the aircraft is normal distributed, consider an encounter between two aircrafts at the same flight level, construct an ellipse conflict region. By establishing a Caresian coordinates represented aircraft position appropriately. First, propose a probability estimation algorithm of medium term conflict detection for cross routes at the same level, then analyze the relationship between the conflict probability and several factors based on various graphs. The results show that when applying the algorithm to the conflict detection whose look ahead time is 15 minutes to 20 minutes, it can achieve perfect effects; under the same condition, the greater the angle between two routes is, the more precise the detection is. Meanwhile, compared with traditional randomized algorithm, the proposed algorithm is advanced in its simple calculation method, fast calculation speed and precise detection calculations. Finally, it could also be applied to the conflict detection of multi-segment, making it is much more widely used in medium conflict detection.%借鉴飞机沿航迹误差服从正态分布这一经典结论,对飞机沿航迹方向运动进行建模,根据同高度两架飞机的相遇几何约束,建立适当的直角坐标系表示两架飞机的位置,构造椭圆形冲突区域,并在此基础上提出了一种针对同高度两条交叉航路的中期冲突探测的概率型算法,然后结合仿真曲线分析了各影响因素与冲突概率之间的关系.结果表明:该算法对于15～20 min预测时间范围的冲突探测可以取得良好地效果;相同条件下,两条航线夹角越大,探测精度越高.同时与以往的随机化算法相比,该算法具有计算方法简单、计算速度快、计算结果精度高等优点.最后将该算法推广至可适用于由多个航路段组成的航路之间的冲突探测,从而使该算法具有更广泛的应用性.
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