日系车萎缩对我国自主品牌汽车的影响效应评估

摘要

This paper analyzes the influence of the share decline of Japanese brands on Chinese brands using the month data of the automobile manufacturing industry of China from July 2010 to December 2013.The regression analysis showed that the regressive coefficients of Japanese brands to Chinese brands are negative in all levels of cars,which demonstrated that the share decline of Japanese brands was objectively favorable for Chinese brands in the automobile manufacturing in-dustry of China although the effects being stronger for the low-end cars.In fact,the opportunities from the share decline of Japanese brands had been grabbed by Chinese brands only in the low-end automobile market but not in the middle and top grade ones,which suggested that the technical capacity of Chinese brands had been very low in the middle and top grade automobile market,and a new national innovation system must be set up to promote the upgrade of the native brand cars in China.%运用2010年7月以来的42个月月度数据，分析了日系车萎缩对我国自主品牌汽车的市场影响。回归分析显示，日系车对自主品牌的回归系数在各级别车型上都是显著为负，这说明日系车的萎缩在客观上是有利于自主品牌的，但这种效应主要体现在低档车型上。实际的情况亦表明，在日系车萎缩所产生的市场机会当中，自主品牌主要抓住了低档车型的机会，而基本无力抓住中、高档车型的机会。研究暗示，自主品牌在中、高档轿车市场上的技术能力严重不足。为促进自主品牌的提档升级，需整体设计我国的创新制度，全方位改善我国的创新环境。