根据桂平市地面气象站1971—2014年气温、降水量、日照时数等资料，采用线性趋势分析、Mann-Kendall检测、Morle小波分析等方法分析了近45年来桂平市气候要素变化特征。结果表明：（1）年极端最高气温、年平均最高气温、年平均最低气温、年平均气温均呈显著的上升趋势，年平均相对湿度呈显著的减少趋势，年降水量、年平均风速呈不显著增大趋势，年日照时数呈不显著的减少趋势；（2）年极端最高气温、年极端最低气温、年平均最高气温、年平均最低气温、年平均气温、年降水量、年相对湿度、年日照时数和年平均风速分别存在19年、22年、20年、4年、10年、16年、19年、17年、32年的主周期变化；（3）年极端最高气温、年平均最高气温、年平均最低气温、年平均气温、年平均相对湿度均通过0．05的显著性水平检验，显著突变点分别为1995年、1998年、1997年、1993年、1992年，其余要素突变特征不显著；（4）R／S 分析表明未来各气候要素将与过去变化趋势保持一致，呈持续性变化。%Based on the data of the temperature,precipitation,sunshine duration etc from the ground meteorological stations from 1971 to 2014 Guiping city,we used the linear trend analysis,Mann-Kendall test,wavelet analysis to analyze characteristics of climate variation in Guiping in the recent 45 years.The results showed that:(1 )Annual extreme maximum temperature and extreme minimum temperature,annual average maximum temperature and aver-age minimum temperature,annual average temperature showed an extremely significant upward trend.annual relative humidity and sunshine duration tended to decrease,annual average wind speed showed a trend of increase;(2)an-nual extreme maximum temperature and extreme minimum temperature,annual mean maximum temperature and av-erage minimum temperature,annual average temperature and precipitation,annual relative humidity and sunshine duration,annual average wind speed had 19a,22a,20a,4a,10a,16a,19a,17a,32a changes main cycle respective-ly;(3)annual extreme maximum temperature and mean maximum temperature,annual mean minimum temperature and average temperature,annual relative humidity by α=0.05 significance level test and mutations in 1995a 1998a,1997a,1993a,1992a respectively,and the rest of the elements is not significant mutations;(4)R/S analysis indicates that the future climate elements would be in consistent change with the past 44 years.
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