近50年淮河下游流域气候要素变化特征分析

摘要

运用Mann-Kendall统计检验、线性估计等方法对准河下游临沂流域气候要素的长期变化趋势及周期性进行了分析.研究表明,临沂流域气温有明显升高的趋势,且冬季增温幅度较大；临沂流域降雨量在夏季和秋季有下降的趋势,而春季和冬季则有增大的趋势,蒸发量则有下降的趋势；临沂流域中部,蒙阴、费县等区域,夏季降雨量减少较多,因此这一区域变干趋势会更加严重,从而导致未来气候变化情景下水源补给不足.%The long-term variation trend and periodicity of climatic elements of the lower reaches of Huaihe River-Linyi watershed were analyzed using Mann-Kendall statistical test and linear estimation. The study shows that the temperature in Linyi watershed has increase trend,and the increasing is more significant in winter. Rainfall in summer and autumn will decrease while increase in spring and winter and evaporation will decrease in the whole year. Rainfall in the central of linyi watershed,such as Mengyin.Feixian.etc. .will decrease more in summer,which will make the area drier in the future,thereby,water supply is insufficient in the climatic change situation.