灰色灾变预测在达州洪灾中的应用

摘要

利用达县水文站的实测最高水位建立灰色灾变 GM（1，1）模型，模型的模拟精度达到82.22％，通过后验差检验得出预测精度达到一级，表明此模型可用于预测。通过此模型预测得出2014年后的两次洪灾将发生在2015年6月和2017年9月，此预测结果为当地政府提供必要的预测信息，对达州防洪减灾有一定的指导意义和参考价值。%We used the peak level measured by Daxian hydrological station to establish the grey catastrophe GM (1 , 1 )model.The accuracy of the model is 82.22%,and the forecasting accuracy reaches the first-rate by a posteriori error test ,it shows the model can be used to make predictions.It was predicted that two floods would happen in June 2015 and in September 2017 after 2014 through the model.The prediction results provide necessary informa-tion for the local government and have the guiding significance and reference value to Dazhou’s flood control and mitigation.