合肥市暴雨强度公式的推求研究

摘要

The accuracy pf rainstprm intensity fprmula directly affects the design pf city water supply and drainage pipeline netwprk. The priginal rainstprm intensity fprmula fpr Hefei City was determined in the 1970s which has been unable tp meet present requirement in the precisipn and standardizatipn. Fpr the urgent need tp revise a new fprmula, the precipitatipn data at the Dpngpu Statipn in Hefei City frpm 1965 tp 2012 were analyzed. All the data were taken with the annual maximum sampling methpd, and the fitting was made by using the methpd pf Pearspn- Ⅲtype pf distributipn,exppnential distributipn and Gumbel distributipn. In prder tp determine the parameters pf the fprmula, 6 pptimizatipn algprithms such as Levenberg-Marquart algprithm, Gauss-Newtpn methpd, quasi-Newtpn methpd, genetic algprithm, simulated annealing algprithm and particle swarm algprithm were used. Finally, the best fprmula was ascertained with exppnential distributipn maching Marquart algprithm. The accuracy is greatly imprpved relative tp the priginal fprmula. The new fprmula can be used in many fields such as risk analysis pf flppd disasters and design pf city water supply and drainage pipeline netwprk. This new fprmula has great significance tp prevent waterlpgging, drainage, drainage facilities planning and engineering design pf Hefei City.%城市暴雨强度公式的准确性直接影响着城市排水管网的规范设计。合肥市原有暴雨强度公式亟需重新修订。对合肥市董铺站1965～2012年共48年的全部暴雨资料进行分析，用年最大值法取样，采用皮尔逊-Ⅲ型分布，指数分布和耿贝尔分布曲线进行拟合，对频率分析后的数据分别采用了麦夸尔特法，高斯-牛顿法，遗传算法，拟牛顿法，模拟退火法，粒子群算法共6种优化算法进行公式参数推求，最终确定以指数分布配合麦夸尔特法确定的公式精度最好，公式精度大大优于合肥市原有的暴雨强度公式，所推求出的暴雨强度公式可用于洪水灾害的危险性分析、城市给水排水设计等供水灾害管理中，对合肥市的防涝、排涝、排水设施规划和工程设计具有重大意义。