煤层气产能预测随机动态模型及应用研究

摘要

On the basis of modern statistics theory, the gray system and the time series analysis are introduced into the coalbed methane output forecasting for the first time and the random dynamic model of output forecast is established. The research results show that random dynamic model is effective to forecast the coalbed methane output. And it provides a new method and thought for the coalb ed methane output forecasting.%基于现代数理统计理论，把灰色系统和时间序列分析方法引进煤层气产能预测，建立了煤层气产能预测的随机动态模型. 应用实例表明，随机动态模型在煤层气产能预测方面是有效的，从而为煤层气产能预测提供了一种全新的思路和方法.