组合预测模型在短期风电功率预测中的应用研究

摘要

为增强风功率预测的准确性,采用基于时间序列模型和支持向量机模型,并且利用最小方差法获得权重系数,构建组合预测模型对风功率进行预测. 仿真结果表明,该组合模型较单项预测模型具有更高的预测精度.%In order to improve the prediction accuracy of wind power, in this paper, combination prediction model is applied based on the ARIMA and SVW model. The minimum variance method is adopted to achieve the weight coefficient, and the combination prediction is built for wind power prediction. Finally, the results show that: compared with the predicting outcomes of each single model, the combination model has higher accuracy.