中国大陆与主要贸易伙伴之间的汇率联动分析

摘要

利用2005年7月21至2010年10月29日期间，每一英镑分别兑换人民币、欧元、美元、日元、新加坡元和港元等六种货币的汇率数据，研究了中国大陆与五个主要贸易伙伴之间的汇率联动关系。利用单位根检验、Granger因果关系检验以及协整检验结果，确定六种汇率之间存在着长期共同趋势，并利用脉冲响应函数和方差分解的方法对所建立的向量误差修正模型进行了分析。%Since the deposit reserve system was established in 1980s, China＇s money multiplier has grown rapidly, which has had an important impact on the rapid growth of money supply （ M2 ） ; and the Central Bank of China has frequently used the required reserve policy as the main monetary policy tool since 2003. Based on inter- national comparisons, this paper studied the growth trend and background of the Money Multiplier and its determi- nants of China and estimated cointegration relationship between the money multiplier and its determinants. Some policy suggestions are presented to cope with the issue of money multiplier＇s growth.