针对进行崩塌危险性评价存在不确定因素,通过对影响崩塌地质灾害危险性指标条件的研究,充分考虑各方面的因素,选用信息熵和未确知测度理论方法,建立崩塌危险性等级评价和排序模型.从实际地质条件出发,考虑影响崩塌危险性的15项因素,根据实测数据建立各影响因素的未确知测度函数.该模型针对崩塌危险性评价中的诸多不确定影响因素,根据实际情况,分别对其进行定性和定量分析,并利用信息熵理论确定各指标权重,依照置信度识别准则对崩塌危险性进行等级判定,并对其危险性进行排序.将该方法应用于S303线映秀至卧龙段公路17处崩塌的危险性评价,研究结果表明:该方法科学合理,意义明确,为今后崩塌危险性评价提供借鉴意义.%According to evaluation uncertainties of landslide hazard, hazard index condition of landslide geological disaster was studied. Fully considering various factors, based on information entropy and unascertained measure theory, rank-evaluating and order-arranging models of landslide hazard were established. Starting from practical geologic condition, 15 factors that influence landslide hazard were taken into account, and uncertainty measure function was obtained based on the in-situ data. The uncertainty problems in evaluation of landslide hazard were solved by qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis respectively. Information entropy theory was used to calculate the index weight of factors, credible degree recognition criteria was used to judge rank of landslide hazard, and the order of hazard was arranged. This model was employed to evaluate 17 landslides in Yingxiu-Wolong highway of S303 line. The results show that uncertainty measure method is reasonable and can provide certain reference significance for landslide hazard evaluation in the future.
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