充填管道磨损风险评估的组合权重与可变模糊耦合模型

摘要

Based on the complexity and incompatibility of factors of pipeline wear risk, the subjective and objective combination weights and variable fuzzy sets were introduced to evaluate the backfill pipeline wear risk. The 12 main factors, i.e., weighted average particle size of backfill aggregation, shape of backfill aggregation, slurry density, slurry corrosivity, pipeline wear resistance, pipeline inner diameter of drill-hole, pipeline thickness, drill-hole inclined rate, multiple ratio pipeline length to column in backfill, installation quality, the ratio of velocity and critical velocity and degree of pipeline changes, were selected. An integrated model of the wear risk evaluation of backfill pipeline was established by the subjective and objective combination weights and variable fuzzy sets. Taking measured data of supply pipeline of backfill system in five domestic mines for example, the optimum combination weight of factors were determined by AHP and information entropy, then comprehensive risk characteristic value was calculated by variable fuzzy model, and risk grade of backfill pipeline wear was obtained, and finally the accuracy was validated through comparing the results with other evaluation models. The results show that this model results are consistent with those of other models and the actual results. It also provides a new method for wear risk evaluation of backfill pipeline.%针对充填管道磨损风险各影响因素之间的复杂性和不相容性，引入主客观组合权重与可变模糊集相结合的充填管道磨损风险评估方法。选取充填骨料加权平均粒径、骨料颗粒形状、浆体密度、浆体腐蚀性、管道耐磨性、钻孔内管道内径、管道壁厚、钻孔偏斜率、充填倍线、管道安装质量、流速与临界流速比值和管线变化程度共12项主要影响因子，建立充填管道磨损风险评估的主客观组合权重与可变模糊耦合模型。以国内5座矿山充填系统的输送管道实测数据为例，根据AHP法和熵权法确定评估指标的最优组合权重，然后利用可变模糊模型计算评估对象的综合风险特征值，进而确定充填管道的磨损风险等级，最终通过与其他模型得到的结果进行对比来验证其准确性。研究结果表明：该模型评估结果与其他风险评估模型评估结果相一致，也与现场实际结果相吻合，为充填管道磨损风险评估提供了新的参考方法。