黑龙江大兴安岭雷击火概率预测模型研究

摘要

In order to study lightening-caused fire in Daxing’anling forest region, the characteristics of lightening-caused fire in Daxing’ anling forest region in Heilongjiang province and the meteorological conditions in the area were taken into account, and the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index (FWI) was cited, and the everyday lightning location data, climate data, lightning-caused ifre data recorded from 2005 to 2010 were used, thus the regression model for the region was established by adopting binary Logistic regression model and Enter Independents Together. The ifnal test results show that the model iftting effects are satisfactory, thus providing a basis for predicting the probability of lightning-caused ifres in Daxing’anling forest region in Heilongjiang province.%结合黑龙江大兴安岭雷击火发生特点及该地区的气象条件，引用加拿大天气指标（FWI）系统，使用2005年至2010年每日的闪电定位数据、天气数据、雷击引发的火灾数据，利用二元Logistic回归模型，采用全部进入法建立回归模型，最后检验分析显示：模型拟合效果较为理想，为预测黑龙江大兴安岭地区雷击火发生概率提供依据。