湖南省杉木材积生长率模型研究

摘要

The volume growth rate plays an important role on dynamic monitoring of forest resources, limitation of forest harvesting and annual updating of forest resources based on it. In this study, the National Forest Resources Inventory in Hunan Province sixth, seventh review ofifxed sample data as data source, after selection ofifxed sampling data, eliminating the unqualiifed sample data ,and according to the different origin, age group were established model of growth rate, which was used of SPSS software to solve the parameter coordination. In order to eliminate the effect of Heteroscedasticity, the author used the weighted least squares method. Buying calculation the parameters of stability index, after evaluation and testing , selection the optimal model. Research shows that: the model accuracy and reliability are high, high, different origin, age group the growth rate of the accuracy of the model is above 97%, the correlation coefifcient ofR2 is above 0.870. The results for the growth of Chinese Fir plantation in Hunan province provides a scientiifc basis for estimation, and it can provide important data support for the Hunan province forest harvesting quota preparation and management of forest resources.%材积生长率是森林资源动态监测的一项重要内容，是森林采伐限额编制和森林资源档案年度更新重要依据。以国家森林资源连续清查湖南省第6次、第7次复查固定样地数据为数据源，对固定样地数据进行筛选，剔除不合格的样本数据，按不同起源、龄组分别建立生长率模型，利用SPSS软件统一协调求解参数，建立杉木材积生长率模型，采用加权最小二乘法进行拟合，以消除异方差的影响。通过计算各模型的参数稳定性指标，对模型进行全面评价和精度检验，确保最优模型的选择。结果表明：不同起源、龄组的生长率模型精度都在97%以上，相关系数R2都在0.870以上，模型的准确性高，可靠性强。研究结果为湖南省杉木林的生长量估测提供了依据，同时也为湖南省森林采伐限额编制及森林资源管理等提供技术支持。