冬小麦旱灾风险评价的指标体系构建及应用——基于2009年北方春旱野外实地考察的认识

摘要

Vast areas of North China suffered severe drought in early February 2009 that had not been encountered for several decades. From field survey, we find the impacts of drought on agriculture is lighter than the results of meteorological statistics and remote sensing monitoring; whilst regional differences is obvious due to different latitudes, landform types, micro-topography and various levels of field management. Based on the existing drought hazard index ( meteorological drought) , this paper puts forward that construction of integrated index system of winter wheat drought risk assessment should be comprehensively considered with index of hazard-formative environments ( zonation, landform types, reservoirs, etc.) and disaster adaptation (levels of field management, etc. ). Taking winter wheat areas in northern China as an example, this paper selects SPI, landform types,DEM and buffer zone of reservoirs as drought integrated index system, and the results of drought integrated risk assessment match well with the actual effects of drought disaster. It could provide a theoretical basis and case support for drought risk governance in high-risk areas of winter wheat.%2009年2月初,我国北方冬麦区遭受了数十年未遇的严重干旱.基于野外实地考察,判断本次干旱对冬小麦造成的实际影响比气象统计与遥感监测结果要轻,同时因纬度、地貌类型、微地貌和田问管理水平的不同而呈现出明显的区域差异.在此基础上,提出应在已有的旱灾致灾指标(气象干旱)基础上,综合考虑地带性、地貌、水库等孕灾环境指标和田间管理水平等灾害适应指标来构建冬小麦旱灾风险的综合评价指标体系.并以北方冬麦区为例,选取SPI、地貌类型、DEM和水库缓冲区等指标得到的旱灾综合风险等级与实际旱情存在较高的吻合性.研究可为高风险区的冬小麦旱灾风险防范提供理论依据和案例支撑.