运用概率论和数理统计方法,基于湖南气象观测资料、NCEP资料及地理信息资料,分析了气象因子、地理因子对雨凇天气形成的影响,揭示了各影响因子的临界影响点.进而分析了主要影响因子位于不同影响点时其它因子对雨淞天气形成的作用,在此基础上,研制了基于气象要素因子、地理因子的雨凇日数学模型.选取平均连续雨凇日数、年平均雨凇日数、雨凇最长持续时间等3项与雨凇日数有关的气候指标对模型模拟结果进行了检验,结果表明模型模拟结果与实际观测结果相关性高,均值差异小.雨凇日模型已被用于精细化的雨凇气候区划.%Based on meteorological observation data, NCEP data and geographical information data of Hunan province, the effects of meteorological and geographical factors on formation glaze weather are analyzed by use of probability theory and mathematic statistical methods and the critical influence points of each influence factor are revealed. Influence of other factors on the formation of glaze weather when major factor locates at different influence points is further analyzed. And a mathematic model of the climate glaze day based on meteorological elements and geographical factors is developed. The simulation results of this model is tested by choosing the related climate indexes as average continuous freezing days, annum mean glaze days and the longest duration of glaze. It shows that the simulated result is highly correlated with the actual observations and the average difference is small. Glaze day model has been applied in refined climatic regionalization of glaze.
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