首页> 中文期刊> 《灾害学》 >科技信任、管理信任及其对公众水灾风险认知的影响——基于长江中下游的社会调查

科技信任、管理信任及其对公众水灾风险认知的影响——基于长江中下游的社会调查

             

摘要

Trust and risk make cause and effect each other to some extent, building mutual feedback relations through the link of cognitive behavioral decisions and behavioral consequences. Study on the public trust of the social disaster reduction capability and the mechanism of its influence on disaster risk cognition may redound to revealing risk potential factors, adjusting risk cognition and avoiding disaster behavior, thereby reducing disaster risk finally. The areas along the lower and middle reaches of the Yangtze river, where flood occurs frequently and intensely, and variety of flood control measures are available, are selected as the research area. The trust level of flood science, technology and management, influence mechanism and the motivation-effect difference between public are studied using method of combining random sampling and in-home interviews to get information. The main conclusions are as follows; ①Public trust level of science and technology exceeds that of management. Trust degree is influenced by gender, ages, disaster experiences and economic development levels of different areas. Trust has characteristics of regional co-construction. ② Trust in science and technology can change public flood risk cognition, strengthen their faith to cope with disasters, reduce their risk estimation and have significant effect on their avoiding disaster behavior tendency, while public management trust has little influence. ③The approval of mitigation measures is viewed as premise of trust motivation production. Disaster reduction methods of science and technology have different principles and acting periods and result in different trust motivations and influences.%信任和风险在一定程度上互为因果,两者通过认知行为决策及行为后果这一环节构建互馈关系.探索公众对社会减灾能力的信任及其对灾害风险认知的影响机制,有助于揭示灾害风险的潜在因素,调适风险认知与避灾行为,从而降低灾害风险.选取水灾发生频繁、强度大、防洪措施多样的长江中下游地区为研究区,运用随机抽样调查和人户访谈相结合的方式获取资料,研究公众的水灾科技信任和管理信任的水平、影响机制、动机-效应差异.主要结论有:①公众科技信任水平普遍高于管理信任.信任水平受到公众性别、年龄、灾害经历、城乡差异等因素不同程度的影响,信任具有区域共构的特点;②科技信任改变了公众水灾风险认知,加强了其灾害应对信心,降低了其对受灾风险的估测,对其避灾行为倾向影响显著,而管理信任对公众水灾风险认知及防灾备灾行为倾向的影响均不大;③信任的产生动机以认可减灾措施有用性为前提,科技减灾和管理减灾由于具有不同的减灾原理及作用时段,导致了公众的不同信任动机及其效应.

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