经济发展对洪灾损失影响的主成分分析评价--以河南、山东省为例

摘要

The research into the influence of economic development on flood damage is conducted in this pa-per,and the annual Gross Domestic Product (GDP)is taken as a major indicator of economic development in the Henan and Shandong provinces.Four factors relevant to flood loss in Henan from 2003 to 201 1 are evaluated using the principal component analysis,which indicates the annual GDP in a region is strongly correlated with the corre-sponding flood damage,with the first principal component being a large load.The data of the annual GDP and the flood loss in Henan and Shandong from 2006 to 2012 are then analyzed,which verifies the relationship between the GDP growth and the flood damage obtains from the principal component analysis.It is confirmed that the direct eco-nomic loss due to floods would increase with the rapid economic development in a region.%选取河南、山东两省为研究对象，将地区年生产总值作为经济发展的主要指标进行研究；采用主成分分析法，计算了河南省2003-2011年的4个洪灾损失影响因子数据，认为地区年生产总值在第一主成分上有较大的荷载，且与洪灾损失呈正相关；然后对河南、山东两省2006-2012年的年生产总值与洪灾损失进行分析，进一步验证了主成分分析法得到的洪灾损失与地区年生产总值增长之间的关系，即：随地区生产总值逐年增加，经济快速发展，导致洪灾发生时造成的直接经济损失也随之增加。