基于反向模糊Pe tri网的应急响应条件下事故的致因分析

摘要

Analyzing the impacts of emergency response actions on the development of an accident is impor-tant for improving emergency preparedness.Reversed fuzzy Petri nets based reasoning method is proposed to ana-lyze emergency response actions.Reasoning approaches of fuzzy Petri nets and reversed fuzzy Petri nets are dis-cussed.Domino effect triggered by fire which is a typical accident influenced by emergency response is taken as an example to illustrate the method.The reversed fuzzy Petri net is established and the emergency actions are ana-lyzed.The results show that the method is feasible for emergency actions analysis.%分析应急响应行动对事故发展的影响，对完善应急准备具有重要作用。提出利用反向模糊 Petri 网进行推理，以对应急响应行动进行分析。讨论了模糊 Petri 网和反向模糊 Petri 网的推理方法，以火灾多米诺效应这一典型受应急响应影响的事故为例，建立了 Petri 网模型，并对主要的应急行动进行了分析，结果表明，基于模糊Petri 网反向推理的分析方法对应急行动进行分析是可行的。