气候变化背景下我国城市高温热浪的风险分析与评估

摘要

针对气候变化背景下高温热浪愈加频繁的变化趋势，从风险分析角度提出了高温热浪灾害风险概念模型，探讨了我国1983－2012年高温热浪频数和强度的变化特征；为解决风险评估建模时决策者难以有效评判的情况，构建了犹豫层次分析法（Hesitant Analytic Hierarchy Process，H-AHP）和逼近于理想解的排序方法（Tech-nique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution，TOPSIS）相结合的高温热浪风险评估模型，并以华东地区6座城市作为承险体进行了分析验证。结果表明，所建模型能够合理构建高温热浪风险指标体系，得到与事实接近的量化评估结果，研究思想和方法途径可为其他气候灾害评估和风险防范提供参考。%Aiming at the variation trends of high-temperature and heat-wave in the background of climate change,we considered a conceptual framework of high-temperature and heat-wave disaster risk from the point of view of risk analysis.We investigate the characteristics of frequency and intensity of high-temperature and heat-wave from 1983 to 2012 based on Chinese terrestrial climatic data sets of daily records.In the interest of hesitant circumstances for decision makers,we build a model of evaluation combing Hesitant Analytic Hierarchy Process (H-AHP)and Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS),which is eventually veri-fied by analyzing six cities in the East China.It can be concluded that the model we constructed is efficient in high-temperature and heat-wave risk index system,and the result of evaluation is close to the reality,the thought-way can be referenced in other climate disasters assessment.