金融冲击、房价波动与货币政策

摘要

The Bayesian impulse response function shows that financial shocks have significant effect on hous -ing market and the whole economy .Thus,the government may use financial shocks during the regulation of housing market.Then,the author turns to the social welfare analysis and compares the social welfare effect of alternative pol-icies.The result shows that the policy response to housing market has much higher level of social welfare than oth -ers,and the policy response to housing price inflation is the best .Therefore,when the government uses financial shocks to regulate the housing market ,the policy response to housing price inflation proposed by the monetary au-thorities may be helpful for stabilizing the housing market and improving the social welfare .%考察金融冲击对于房地产市场与宏观经济的影响以及相关的货币政策选择，贝叶斯脉冲响应函数表明，金融冲击对于房地产市场以及宏观经济变量均具有显著的冲击效应。因而在房地产市场调控过程中，政府可以积极利用金融冲击的效应。社会福利分析的结果表明，对房地产市场做出反应的货币政策机制具有较高的社会福利水平，并且对房价膨胀做出反应的政策机制优于其他政策机制。因此，在利用金融冲击调控房地产市场的过程中，通过采用对房价膨胀做出反应的政策可以达到稳定房地产市场与提高社会福利的目的。