利用变环境数据的Weibull分布可靠性综合评估

摘要

To improve the stability and accuracy of the reliability assessment, a method of integrated reli ability assessment for Weibull distribution was proposed using the varied environment test data. In this meth od, the location parameter and scale parameter were assumed respectively as a function of relevant environment variables. Then the location parameter function was constructed by the method of radial basis function while the scale parameter function was constructed by the linear model. Thus the influences of environment factors on the reliability of the product were measured quantificationally. With the generalized linear model, the maxi mum likelihood estimations of the coefficients were obtained, and corresponding arithmetic was put forward. With the estimations, the approximated confidence interval for the reliability function was obtained according to the normal law. The instance analysis shows that this integrated reliability assessment method improves the precision of reliability assessment and is straightforward for engineering application.%为了提高可靠性评估精度，研究了环境因素对产品可靠性的影响，提出了一种适用于Weibull分布的变环境数据可靠性综合评估方法．首先通过利用径向基函数法来度量不同环境因素及其交互作用对可靠性的影响，建立了关于环境因素的位置参数模型．并针对刻度参数依赖于环境因素的情形，利用线性模型来建立刻度参数模型．然后利用广义线性模型，给出了位置和刻度参数模型系数的极大似然估计，并给出了可靠度近似置信下限．实例表明该方法能较好地度量环境因素对可靠性的影响，而且合理可行便于工程应用．