利用变环境试验数据的可靠性灵敏度分析

摘要

研究了环境因素对产品可靠性的影响,提出了一种利用变环境试验数据的可靠性灵敏度分析方法.首先针对产品寿命服从位置-刻度模型的情形,利用径向基函数法来度量不同环境因素及其交互作用对可靠性的影响,建立了关于环境因素的位置参数模型.接着利用Poisson分布来描述似然函数中的示性变量,利用广义线性模型给出了可靠性模型参数的极大似然估计.进而给出了关于环境因素的可靠性灵敏度,用于度量可靠性对环境因素的灵敏性.结合实例表明该方法综合利用了不同环境条件下的试验数据,可用于分析产品可靠性随环境因素的动态变化特征.%Many products always operate under various complex environment conditions. To describe the dynamic influence of environment factors on their reliability, a method of reliability sensitivity analysis using variable environment test data is proposed. In this method, a location scale model is introduced to relate the reliability to environment factors. And the location parameter is assumed as a function of relevant environment variables while the scale parameter is assumed as an unknown positive constant. Then,the location parameter function is constructed by using the method of radial basis function. Using the varied environment test data, the log-likelihood function is transformed to a generalized linear expression by describing the indicator as Poisson variable. With the generalized linear model, the maximum likelihood estimations of the model coefficients are obtained. Thus, the influences of environment factors on the reliability of the product are measured quantitatively, especially the interaction of varied environment factors.With the reliability model, the reliability sensitivity is obtained. An instance analysis shows that the method can be used to analysis the dynamic variety character of reliability along with environment factors and is straightforward for engineering application.