基于时段偏好的高铁旅客车次选择行为研究

摘要

高频公交化运营已成为部分高速铁路线路满足快速增长需求的行车组织模式.历史售票数据显示旅客对同一起讫站(OD)间平行车次的选择具有明显差异性,基于Logit模型构建考虑出发时段偏好的旅客平行车次选择方法.从车次选择率及购票特征两方面阐述旅客对平行车次选择的差异性,认为出发时段是影响旅客选择的关键要素.利用RP(Revealed Preference)与SP(Stated Preference)组合调查方法获取旅客实际出发时段偏好及潜在支付意愿.将旅客出发时段偏好融合至选择广义费用函数,构建平行车次条件下旅客的车次选择模型.京沪高铁实证分析显示:模型预测结果与实际情况间平均相对误差为6.62％,验证了方法的有效性和准确性.为精细化需求特征分析及管理提供理论基础和决策方法.%The high-frequency train operations which like the bus operation have become a normal organization mode for meeting the rapid growth travel demand in some certain high-speed railway lines.The historical ticket data show that travelers have obvious differences in choosing the train under the condition of parallel trains between the same origin and destination station (OD).This paper proposes a train choice model for travelers based on the Logit model considering the depar-ture time preferences.Firstly,two aspects of the train selection rate and ticket buying are used to describe the difference between the choices of parallel trains,and indicate that the departure time is a key factor affecting the choice of passengers.A combined survey with RP and SP is applied to get the expected departure time of the passenger and the potential willingness to pay.The depar-ture time preference is integrated into the passenger''s choice of the generalized cost function to construct the passenger''s choice model for the parallel trains.The empirical analysis of the Bei-jing-Shanghai high-speed railway shows that the average relative error between the model predic-tive results and the actual situation is 6.62％,which verifies the validity and accuracy of the met-hod.The research can provide theoretical basis and decision-making method for the analysis and management of the travel demand.