人民币汇率与中国入境旅游需求关系研究

摘要

研究选择2006－2010年中国入境旅游13个主要客源国的季度数据，建立面板计量模型，计量分析了汇改以来中国汇率浮动对中国入境旅游外国人需求的影响。结果表明，中国入境旅游外国人需求、观光休闲旅游需求的汇率弹性为正，统计上显著，前者小于后者，但都小于1。而以会议／商务、探亲访友、服务员工等为目的的入境旅游外国人需求对汇率敏感度较小，统计上不显著。此外，在入境旅游总需求与观光休闲模型中，前一期的入境旅游外国人需求对当期需求有显著影响。同时，在两种模型中，均显示韩国、日本、印尼有较高的“自发”旅华需求，而法国、英国则较低。最后，提出了相关建议。%Selecting the quarterly data of China＇s Inbound Tourism Demand of 13 major origins from 2006 to 2010, this paper analyzes econometrically the impact of RAM exchange rate fluctuations on China＇s inbound tourism demand by establishing panel econometric models. The results show： The exchange rate elasticity of China＇s inbound tourism foreign total demand and sightseeing/leisure tourism demand is positive and statistically significant, and the former is larger than the latter, but both less than 1. But it is not significant for inbound tourism foreign demand for the purpose of meeting/business and visiting friends and worker/crew. In addition, one term lag of inbound tourism foreign demand has significant impact on the current demand in the total inbound tourism demand and sightseeing/leisure tourism demand model. At the same time, a high ＂spontaneous＂ tourism demand of Korea and Japan and Indonesia for China is showed in the two models, and France and the UK is low. Finally, some suggestions are put forward.