飞机积冰形势场数值模拟试验的参数化方案效果评估

摘要

利用WRF模式对飞机积冰时的形势场进行模拟，通过双线性插值法对模拟的要素进行降尺度处理，比较不同参数化方案时形势场的预报值和实况值之间的相关性，研究不同参数化方案对飞机积冰形势场的模拟能力。结果表明：不同参数化方案的选择影响模拟效果，当微物理过程方案采用WRF Single－Moment 3－class scheme及积云参数化方案采用Betts－Miller－Janjic scheme时，形势场预报值和实况值间相关系数最大，均方根误差最小，预报值与实况值之间变化趋势和特征最接近；且根据飞机积冰实测报告，利用假霜点温度经验法验证，此时积冰的预报效果和实际报告结果最相符。%The situation field of aircraft icing was simulated by using WRF model.The bilinear interpolation was performed to drop the scale of the simulated elements.The correlations between forecast value and actual value of situation field on 500 hPa were compared for different parameterization schemes,and the ability of simulating situation field of aircraft icing was investigated about different pa-rameterization schemes.The results indicated that different parameterization schemes would influence the simulation results,when mi-crophysical process scheme used WRF Single-Moment 3-class scheme and cumulus parameterization scheme used Betts-Miller-Janjic scheme,the correlation coefficient between forecast value and actual value of situation field was maximum,and their root mean square error was minimum,and the trend and characteristics of the forecast value were the most close to the actual value.Based on air-craft icing measured report and the false frost point discriminate method,aircraft icing’s forecast results were the most consistent with the measured report.